With this question I want to initiate series of reflections about the construction of a separate, not discussed here before, methodology of the speculations on derivatives. The practical realization of this idea, which I will develop in subsequent posts, will be carried out using the methods and achievements of the modern theory of portfolio selection. One of the concepts operating within it is known as CAPM, i.e. Capital Asset Pricing Model. The model mentioned here was originally formulated for equity portfolios, and naturally is followed by the idea - good or bad - to transplant its prey on the ground of derivative instruments, including Forex.
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Following the previous post, I now present a model that defines the size of the gain or loss arising from the use of anti-trend strategy. This strategy, the assumptions presented here, is a simple mirror image of that which follows the trend.
Tuesday, October 9, 2012
In the current section I suggest another portion of mathematical formulas. Earlier models were discussed, which define the conditions of a strategy to reverse the position of the player who is following the trend and remains constantly in the market. Currently I present similar formulas for anti-trend strategy, sometimes called contrary.
Friday, October 5, 2012
In the early texts appearing on this blog, I started providing basic assumptions of transactional systems, starting from a simple trend following strategy. The simplicity and triviality of these approaches is justified by the plan to use them as basic building blocks to design more advanced systems. And all this will be implemented through an adaptive selection of parameters which control the operation of these systems. Selection on the basis of the results of auxiliary systems, which operate in a hierarchical structure.
So much for the reminder of basic aims of my descriptions that I put here. Today I present the assumptions of the second elementary component of my design - simple contrarian system.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
In the previous post I presented the rules that govern changes in the market by the player applying the strategy to follow the trend. Now I want to go to the formulas determining gains and losses arising from the position occupied by the player. Of course, this applies to profits from the basic strategy, as there is always the assumption operate on a fixed and unchanging position size.
Monday, September 17, 2012
The system discussed in the previous post can be easily tested using the simulation method of its operation. The input record format will be an Open-High-Low-Close, and I plan to implement the engine of the system using C++ compiler together with the R environment. But first I would like to briefly write down the formulas necessary to program rules of position reversals and the resulting profits.
Friday, September 14, 2012
I want to go as soon as possible to the specific methods and algorithms, which is why today I present the basic concept of the base system. With such systems, like building blocks, I'll build more complex structures. Among other things, through the use of hierarchical stacking one on the other systems. But more on that later, for now I want to describe the basics of my methodology.